Evaluasi Pengamanan Hutan Berbasis Risiko: Hubungan Intensitas Patroli, Pemantauan Satelit, dan Temuan Kayu Ilegal di Bolaang Mongondow
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62504/jimr1517Keywords:
pengamanan hutan, patroli berbasis risiko, pemantauan satelitAbstract
Operasi pengamanan hutan membutuhkan evaluasi berbasis data agar alokasi patroli, pemantauan satelit, dan respons penegakan hukum dapat diarahkan pada wilayah serta periode yang paling berisiko. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi hubungan antara intensitas patroli dan luas deforestasi, perubahan waktu respons penanganan kasus setelah pemanfaatan pemantauan satelit near-real-time, serta pola temporal dan indikasi konsentrasi spasial temuan kayu ilegal di Kabupaten Bolaang Mongondow, Sulawesi Utara. Penelitian menggunakan desain kuantitatif evaluatif berbasis data operasional Balai Penegakan Hukum Kehutanan. Data mencakup 150 titik patroli dan temuan kayu ilegal selama 1 Januari-31 Desember 2023, 10 sektor pengamatan hasil agregasi titik patroli, serta 30 pasang kasus respons yang dipadankan antara periode manual Januari-Juni 2022 dan periode berbasis satelit Januari-Juni 2023. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan statistik deskriptif, regresi linear sederhana, uji-t berpasangan, ukuran efek Cohen's d, uji Kruskal-Wallis, dan identifikasi outlier berbasis persentil ke-90. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa intensitas patroli berasosiasi negatif dan signifikan dengan luas deforestasi pada tingkat sektor (B = -1,05; R2 = 0,919; F(1,8) = 91,03; p < 0,001). Waktu respons rata-rata menurun dari 51,5 jam pada metode manual menjadi 23,6 jam setelah pemanfaatan pemantauan satelit, dengan selisih rata-rata -27,9 jam, t(29) = -14,72; p < 0,001; dan Cohen's d = 2,69. Volume temuan kayu ilegal tertinggi terjadi pada Q3 atau Juli-September (60,2 +/- 14,5 m3), dengan perbedaan signifikan antarkuartal (H(3) = 28,74; p < 0,001). Sebanyak 80% titik outlier berada pada wilayah berkerawanan tinggi. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa integrasi patroli terarah, pemantauan satelit, dan evaluasi spasial-temporal sederhana dapat memperkuat pengamanan hutan berbasis risiko. Namun, seluruh hasil perlu ditafsirkan sebagai asosiasi operasional karena penelitian bersifat observasional, jumlah sektor regresi terbatas, dan analisis spasial belum menggunakan pemodelan hotspot formal.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Abdul Samad Hiola, Nabila Margareta Hakim, Abdul Alim, Daud Sandalayuk, Alexander Ruruh, Ernikawati, Dian Puspaningrum (Author)
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